New GOP Primary Poll Shows Tight Governor’s Race As Early Voting Begins Next Week

Randy Boyd, Diane Black, Bill Lee

An Arizona-based polling company, Data Orbital, has released poll results in the Tennessee Governor’s race that show a deadlocked race between Diane Black and Randy Boyd, with Bill Lee lurking not far behind. The Data Orbital Poll was conducted from June 27 to 30 and polled 700 likely GOP voters.

Data Orbital pollAccording to the Data Orbital survey Black currently has 24.3 percent, Boyd 23.1 percent, Lee 18.8 percent, Harwell 10 percent, and 23 percent undecided. The Tennessee Star Poll, released last week, had slightly different results, with Boyd in the lead with 32.6 percent, followed by Black with 26.9 percent, Lee with 20.3 percent and Harwell was at 6.9 percent.

The Tennessee Star Poll was conducted by Triton Research and Polling, which polled 1040 likely GOP Primary voters between June 26 and June 29, approximately 50% more than polled by Data Orbital. It also appears that the Data Orbital poll may have over-surveyed Middle Tennessee while under surveying voters in East and West Tennessee, where Boyd enjoys greater support. Data Orbital did not make the geographic cross-tabs of its poll available.

Tennessee Star Political Editor Steve Gill notes that the Tennessee Star Poll is consistent with numbers produced by at last two other statewide GOP primary surveys in the past week or so.

“Boyd has a significant lead in East and West Tennessee,” Gill says, “and our survey has him about ten points higher statewide and undecided about ten points less. Harwell is polling about double in the Data Orbital poll than other surveys are indicating which would underline higher Middle Tennessee data collection.”

Data Orbital poll results“The other demographic breakdowns in the Data Orbital poll are consistent with what we are seeing, including the fact that Lee is drawing relatively strong support among younger voters and that Harwell is pulling a higher portion of her support from those who have low regard for President Trump and are more moderate to liberal than the main base of GOP primary voters,” Gill adds. “Unfortunately for her, the number of GOP primary voters who fit those descriptions are small.”

The bottom line, according to Gill, is that all of the recent polls show Lee emerging as a clear threat to Diane Black, which is why she is now attacking him with hard-hitting television and radio ads.

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital, issued the following statement on these results: “Looking at the Gubernatorial race in Tennessee we see Lee with some growth from past polls. This growth can be seen in Lee’s numbers in the younger age groups. With the largest amount of undecided voters being 36-50 year old age group and on the middle of political spectrum this race will be key to watch as we approach the August 2nd primary.”







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7 Thoughts to “New GOP Primary Poll Shows Tight Governor’s Race As Early Voting Begins Next Week”

  1. lb

    I think a runoff is an interesting idea. Better than someone with 1/3 of the vote to get it.

    Black is the only clear choice. La Raza Randy is the biggest phony on planet Earth. He is all in for illegals. He hasnt built anything–he inherited it. HIs policies are just more RINO East TN liberal Rs and that is what we do NOT need more of in this State!

  2. John Bumpus

    My ‘take-away’ from all of this is that priority no. 1 in the new legislative session should be the reform of Tennessee’s decades-old ‘Frank Clement/Democrat-rigged’ primary election scheme where the nominee of the party for state-wide office (Governor or Senator) can win with just a plurality of the party primary vote. THERE SHOULD BE A RUN-OFF BETWEEN THE TOP TWO VOTE GETTERS IF NO ONE WINS A MAJORITY OF THE PRIMARY VOTE OUTRIGHT IN THE INITIAL VOTE. A POLITICAL PARTY’S NOMINEE SHOULD BE THAT PERSON WHO WINS A CLEAR MAJORITY OF A PARTY’S VOTERS. (AND THIS IS PROBABLY WHY RINOs WILL FIGHT SUCH A PROPOSAL ‘TOOTH AND CLAW.’)

    1. Stuart I. Anderson

      I’m with you John! The problem is that only makes two of us who notice how really flawed the system really is.

      1. John Bumpus

        I try to be an optimist. I know that Tennessee has some scoundrels (who shall remain nameless, but most ‘woke’ folks know to whom I am referring) in the General Assembly to be sure. But I think that the overwhelming majority of our state legislators are principled public servants who just want what is best for the people of our State. And one thing about Tennessee that is unusual among the various states of the union (and I think it is a positive), Tennessee has a strong legislature vis-à-vis the executive in that if a Governor vetoes enacted legislation the General Assembly can override that veto with the same simple majority that it took to pass the bill in the first place. None of this super-majority stuff that causes so much pain and grief elsewhere (I am particularly thinking of Virginia which is near and dear to my heart, but which is presently in a ‘bottomless pit’ that I don’t know if it will ever get out of.)

  3. Terry

    Identifying the most reliably conservative candidate is very easy in this race – Rep. Black is a big government advocate who would gives us another another RINO Governor – no thanks. Boyd has proven his chops by outsourcing manufacturing and engineering jobs to China, right from the get go. China is an atheistic, communist regime that forces women to have abortions against their will – Boyd is OK with that, as long as it makes him a buck. Speaker Harwell has proven her chops to appeal to the more liberal-leaning faction. Bill Lee has put forward a road map for rural Tennessee, recently released his “Ten for Tenn” agenda, and is the one and only candidate who wants to break through the Nashville bubble.

    Nope, this is a very easy choice to make. Polls schmolls – Endorsements, enschmorsements – look at what the candidates advocate for the state and see which one has been willing to articulate that vision. Issues are what count, not some glorified high school popularity contest nor big money pulling the strings on their favorite puppet. Research, analyze and decide. Elections are an opportunity to think for yourself and vote your conscience, not be led by the nose…leave that to the party ideologues.

  4. Kevin

    Stuart, your tactic is very sound, on two accounts. First, it does allow for you to take in as much information as possible, before making your choice. Secondly, IF, you subscribe to the belief that voting is rigged, early voting has the potential of being doubly rigged.

    But, the question is, who or what poll to believe? We saw in the last Presidential election how far off the polls were. No, I’m sticking with my very SIAIAS approach to picking my choice for Governor. I did the research, I did the interview, and I will vote for Bill Lee. I also will live with and own my decision, whether it turns out to be good, or bad.

  5. Stuart I. Anderson

    I usually vote very early during the early voting period because identifying the most reliably conservative candidate is not difficult so why not get voting out of the way. Not this time, as a matter of fact I may wait and vote on election day August 2 for the first time in a long time. The ANYBODY BUT BOYD strategy calls for voting for the candidate most likely to defeat Randy! and at this rate that may not be known until the last possible moment, if at all.