Poll: Marsha Blackburn Leads Phil Bredesen by 14 in Senate Race, 55 to 41

Phil Bredesen, Marsha Blackburn

A poll released by Axios-Survey Monkey on Tuesday shows that Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) leads Democrat Phil Bredesen by 14 points in the U.S. Senate general election, 55 percent to 41 percent among registered voters.

Among likely voters, Blackburn’s lead over Bredesen is even greater, 58 percent to 40 percent.

Axios-Survey Monkey conducted similar polls in 13 states where contested Senate races are underway. The overall polling reveals that Democrats will have an uphill climb in attempting to capture control of the U.S. Senate in the midterm 2018 election cycle. Democrats are hampered in their Senate races by having to retain seats in 10 states that President Donald Trump carried in 2016, including five that he carried by double digits.

Tennessee Star Political Editor Steve Gill said that he is somewhat skeptical of the poll results due to the fact that the survey was conducted over a nearly three week period while typical polling is concluded over 3-4 days. “Nevertheless,” Gill noted, “it appears that Blackburn and Bredesen are both consolidating their party base, with each capturing over 90 percent support from those identifying as Republicans and Democrats respectively.”

“Tennessee is a red state that Donald Trump carried handily in 2016 so if Marsha secures the Republican vote and competes effectively for independents she should have a solid margin, which is exactly what this poll indicates she is doing,” Gill said. “The Senate confirmation battle over Judge Brett Kavanaugh is a gift for Marsha and reminds Republicans what is at stake — not only in this nomination fight but the next one that is likely to come during the next several years. Neither Blackburn or Bredesen will have a vote this time, but if Tennesseans want another conservative Trump nominee to get confirmed next time the winner of this race WILL have a vote.

“As Democrats line up to oppose someone as brilliant, credentialed and superb as Kavanaugh, Phil Bredesen has never shown the courage or political independence to counter his own political party in the past and I don’t believe most Tennesseans will buy the idea that he will stand up to the intense pressures that the next Senate confirmation fight will bring to bear. He’s given a half million dollars in donations to Democrats and nothing to Republicans, so his claims of political bipartisanship are not evident from his actual track record.”

The Axios-Survey Monkey poll was conducted of more than 12,000 respondents in the 13 most closely watched Senate races, and included results from Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Montana, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, Ohio, Texas, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, in addition to Tennessee.

The results reported from those 12 other races, all of which have been more heavily polled than the Tennessee senate race, closely track the results from other recent polls, as shown on the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls.

The methodology used by Axios-Survey Monkey differs from that of standard polling.

First, it was conducted over a longer period of time, covering three weeks beginning June 11 and ending July 2.

Second, instead of using live or automated phone calls to land line and cell phones, the Axios/Survey Monkey Poll is primarily online.

The Axios-Survey Monkey Poll of Tennessee had 1,010 respondents, and  a margin of error of 4.5 percent.






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9 Thoughts to “Poll: Marsha Blackburn Leads Phil Bredesen by 14 in Senate Race, 55 to 41”

  1. Lj

    Man, she would be terrible for the state. I hope Bredesen can turn it around.

  2. […] Marsha Blackburn is dominating her Senate race, and other Republicans are doing similarly. Even as the media tells us the Democrats are doing fine, the voters are rejecting the narrative. Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement will not be Democrat approved. […]

  3. […] Breitbart: Mitch McConnell Calls Dems’ Bluff, Threatens Election Eve Vote on Kavanaugh TN Star- Poll: Marsha Blackburn Leads Phil Bredesen by 14 in Senate Race, 55 to 41 […]

  4. […] Two recent polls suggest the race is tight, while a third poll, released last month by Axios-Survey Monkey, gives Blackburn a 14 point lead. […]

  5. […] The poll stands in marked contrast to the Axios-Survey Monkey Poll released earlier this week that shows Blackburn leading Bredesen by 14 points, 55 percent to 41 percent. […]

  6. Ed Huber

    Compared to Bredesen, Corker, Alexander and most of congress as it exists today Blackburn is a breath of fresh air but she is a far cry from a constitutional conservative. One quick look at her voting record proves my point but she is the lesser of the evils.

    1. Terry

      Agreed, a far cry indeed – she bears watching and being held to account. The most transparent vote rating index I’ve found with regard to constitutionality is the New American Freedom Index – on that, Rep. Blackburn is tied for dead last among her TN GOP colleagues in the House:

      Rep. Duncan – 84%
      Rep. DeJarlais – 78%
      Rep. Roe – 70%
      Rep. Kustoff – 65%
      Rep. Fleischman – 64%
      Rep. Blackburn – 64%
      Rep. Black – 64%

      Using that same index over the same period, even Sen. Corker, whom she hopes to replace, ranks slightly higher at 65%. Granted, those are different bills before the Senate, but still. Your overarching point however, that she is better than Sen. Corker, is probably valid and she is most certainly a better candidate than Bredesen. Bear in mind too, that the senator’s job is to represent the state’s interests, not the people’s, hence the bicameral legislature. So the evaluative criteria that needs to apply is whether or not the state’s interests are being pursued in earnest and in good faith.

  7. Angelito

    I hope this means that Tennessee residents are realizing that Bredeson=Shumer=Pelosi=Obama.

    Bredeson will line right up with his leftist pals and do what liberals do—obstruct and whine.

  8. 83ragtop50

    I am happy to see the poll results. I am not convinced that Blackburn is a true conservative but she will be an improvement. Unfortunately at the state level Tennessee is a “red state” but governed like a blue state. Likewise, the current senators, Corker and Alexander, vote and act like Democrats.