by CHQ Staff
Prior to the middle of September, the Republican establishment was struggling to find a message that would motivate the Trump coalition to turn out for the November midterm election. However, the Democrats have now handed the GOP a national issue that has quickly proven it will motivate voters to shift to Republican Senate candidates: the confirmation of the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
In the key Senate match-up between incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp and challenger Republican congressman Kevin Cramer, Heitkamp is down 10 points in the latest NBC North Dakota News – Strategic Research Associates (SRA) poll. According to the poll, Cramer leads Heitkamp 51 percent to 41 percent. Eight percent have yet to make up their mind.
According to NBC North Dakota News, sixty percent of voters in North Dakota support Kavanaugh with 27 percent expressing opposition. The poll was conducted during the recent disclosure that Kavanaugh may have engaged in sexual misconduct while in high school and college, but before the Sept. 27 testimony by Kavanaugh and one of his accusers before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
According to the poll, an overwhelmingly 21 percent of North Dakota voters say confirming Kavanaugh is their biggest concern. Followed by health care at 13 percent, 12 percent think immigration-border security is the top issue. The Economy and jobs at 10 percent, National security at 9 percent, taxes at 8 percent, trade and tariffs and Russian collusion at 7 percent each, social issues at 6 percent and Gun Control and none round out the list each at 4 percent.
A poll of North Dakota voters by Public Opinion Strategies for the Judicial Crisis network found similar results:
Overall, North Dakotans want Judge Brett Kavanaugh confirmed by a margin of 56% – 26%
This includes the majority of Independents by a margin of 51% – 26%
This includes women by a margin of 50% – 29%
In the hotly contested West Virginia Senate race, pitting limited government constitutional conservative Attorney General Patrick Morrisey against fake conservative Democrat Joe Manchin, the results are similar:
Overall, West Virginians want Judge Brett Kavanaugh confirmed by a margin of 58% – 28%
This includes the majority of Independents by a margin of 59% – 26%
This includes the majority of women by a margin of 52% – 35%
In Missouri, where incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill has already come out against the Kavanaugh nomination a new poll finds that McCaskill has fallen behind Republican opponent Attorney General Josh Hawley due to her opposition to Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
A new poll by Remington Research Group, reported by The Federalist, found that of the 1,555 likely Missouri voters surveyed late last week, 48 percent said they were planning to vote for Republican candidate Josh Hawley while 46 percent said they planned to vote for McCaskill.
The Federalist’s Bre Payton reported that when asked if McCaskill’s opposition to Kavanaugh affected their voting decision, 49 percent said it made them less likely to vote for the Democratic senator, while only 42 percent it made them more likely to vote for her.
Payton says the incumbent Democrat is in a hotly contested race, and support for Hawley has been surging in the polls over the past month. The Real Clear Politics poll average puts Hawley ahead of McCaskill by one point and shows that the race has grown increasingly competitive going into November.
Meanwhile, in races where the Republican challenger has shied away from the Kavanaugh confirmation issue, such as Florida’s Senate race pitting Republican Governor Rick Scott against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson, Democrat incumbents seem to be holding their own.
FiveThirtyEight.com rates the Florida Senate race as leaning Democrat with a 5 in 8, chance the Democrat wins (61.7%).
FiveThirtyEight notes a new Quinnipiac University polls of the gubernatorial and Senate races in Florida found that both are neck and neck, with voters almost evenly split between the Democratic and Republican candidates. That’s not all that surprising in a perpetual swing state like Florida. But here’s what did catch our eye: The vast majority of Florida voters are already committed to a candidate with about two months still left until Election Day. Only 3 percent of voters in the gubernatorial poll and 2 percent of voters in the Senate poll said they were undecided.
The one big issue out there that could move Florida voters?
The confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, where a recent poll by the Tarrance Group found that 56 percent of Florida voters want incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson to confirm Judge Kavanaugh. Nelson has already come out against Judge Kavanaugh, and the 2 percent of voters still up for grabs in the Sunshine State’s senate election could shift to Governor Scott if he comes out strongly in favor of confirming Judge Kavanaugh.
Republican candidates who play small ball – campaigning on local issues – are likely to lose this November. However, one big issue that seems to be moving voters right now is the two standards of justice applied to Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Under the Democrats’ standard of justice, you are guilty until proven innocent, especially if you are a Christian and a conservative. But if you are Ted Kennedy, Bill Clinton or Hillary Clinton or any other member of the Democratic elite, no investigation is necessary and your wrongdoing, however blatant, is ignored.