A new poll shows Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by only 5 points, nearly at the margin of error of 3.9 percent, but the president’s delegation chairman says that does not factor in Trump’s grassroots effort.
The Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University released the poll, which is available here.
Biden holds a 5-point lead in Virginia over President Donald Trump, 48% to 43%, according to the survey of likely voters released Thursday. Among Virginians who are enthusiastic about voting in the November 3 election, Biden’s lead jumps to 8 points, 51%-43%, the poll said.
“Enthusiasm is a key to Biden’s lead and will be a key to turnout on Election Day,” Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo said. “We saw an enthusiasm gap of 6 points between Democrats and Republicans in this survey.”
Among those voters, Biden shows a 27% advantage among women (61% to 34%), 18% among voters younger voters (56%-38%), 61% among Black voters (75%-14%), and 36% among college-educated voters (66%-30%). Biden also holds Trump to a draw among enthusiastic voters 45 and older, a bloc that has favored Trump in the past. Trump’s advantage with enthusiastic voters is 17% among non-college-educated voters (54%-37%), 20% among white voters (53%-43%) and 12% among men (52%-40%).
The Wason Center interviewed 796 registered Virginia voters on cell phone and landline, September 9-21.
However, John Fredericks, chairman of the Trump Virginia Delegation, said the poll oversampled Democrats. Fredericks is publisher and editor-in-chief of The Virginia Star.
“I’ve been telling everybody for a month the state is in play,” Fredericks said. “When you take our ground game and the most recent poll numbers, we are going to carry Virginia. This is going to be the upset to rock the world Nov. 3.”
Trump has momentum, Fredericks said, mentioning Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s efforts to cancel Trump’s rally today at the Newport News/Williamsburg International Airport.
On Thursday, the Secretary of Transportation sent a letter to all Virginia airports reminding them of coronavirus restrictions, 13 News Now reported.
Dr. Natasha Dwamena, the director for the Hampton and Peninsula Health District, also sent a letter specifically to Richard Martinez of Atlantic Aviation – the group organizing the rally – asking the airport to cancel or scale down Trump’s event.
Dwamena said it would likely violate Governor Ralph Northam’s Executive Order 67, limiting gatherings to 250 people.
Fredericks said that is in response to Trump’s enormous turnout on the ground.
“The Virginia Democrats are in complete panic mode,” he said. “The only thing they can do now is try to stop our operation from campaigning and stop the president from coming to Virginia.”
Fredericks said it is “interesting” when protesters can burn down Richmond and Democratic leaders do not impose safety restrictions on them in regard to the coronavirus, but they try to cancel a Trump rally.
Trump has a massive ground game, meaning he has 6,000 volunteers knocking on doors across the state, Fredericks said. They contacted 2,100,000 voters directly and knocked on more than 300,000 doors, and there are 40 days to go. He said he estimates they will knock on half a million doors by Election Day, or one-eighth of the projected turnout.
Meanwhile, Biden has zero door knockers because making direct contact “doesn’t fit their fear-mongering COVID narrative,” he said. “Certainly, if you can’t send your kids to school, you can’t be knocking on doors for Joe Biden.”
The poll results led Breitbart writer Michael Patrick Leahy to place Virginia back in the battleground category, according to a story published Thursday. The 5-point lead is Biden’s lowest lead in the state for the election cycle.
Leahy is the majority shareholder of Star News Digital Media.
Leahy recently reported in Breitbart that Trump’s support in the black community has surged and could be double the 8 percent he received in 2016, based on polling data. One pollster said that could be due to Trump’s emphasis on law and order.
Fredericks concluded by saying, “We’re going to win.”
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Breitbart author Michael Patrick Leahy is the majority shareholder of Star News Digital Media, which has a network affiliate relationship with The Virginia Star.
John Fredericks is the publisher and editor-in-chief of The Virginia Star. He is also a Trump 2020 delegate and the chairman of the Trump Virginia Delegation.