by Casey Harper
With less than half a year until the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump holds a sizable lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in several swing states.
While the overall national polling varies and shows a tighter race, Trump holds significant leads in several swing states.
According to Real Clear Politics, Trump leads in a slew of key battleground states like Arizona (+5.2), Georgia (+4.6), Michigan (+0.8), Nevada (+6.2), North Carolina (+5.4), Pennsylvania (+2.0), and Wisconsin (+0.6).
Other polling has shown Trump with a dominant lead in the Sun Belt while performing less well against Biden in some rust belt swing states.
“As the old saying goes, good gets better and bad gets worse, and it’s clear President Biden is in bad shape right now,” Colin Reed, a Republican strategist, former campaign manager for U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and co-founder of South and Hill Strategies, told The Center Square. “Five and a half months is an eternity in politics, and there’s theoretically still time to right the ship, but it’s getting late early for the president, especially when Father Time remains undefeated and doubts about his age continue to grow.”
According to the Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, Trump leads Biden 46.1 percent to 44.9 percent.
A New York Times poll released this week showed leads for Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania but slightly trailing Biden in Wisconsin, raising concerns among supporters.
Trump’s lead has been in large part fueled by minority voters flocking to his side.
Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating has plummeted since taking office. While that is not unusual for incumbents, Biden’s approval is lower than recent presidents.
Gallup recently released polling data showing that in the 13th quarter of Biden’s presidency, he averaged a 38.7 percent approval rating, worse than Trump at the same time in his term.
“None of the other nine presidents elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower had a lower 13th-quarter average than Biden,” Gallup said.
Axios reported this week that Biden and his team think the polls don’t represent Americans’ actual feelings and that the president’s position is strong.
“They’re still 50 percent (well 45 percent) to win, per betting markets,” pollster Nate Silver wrote on X. “But Biden has been behind Trump in polls for a year now. His approval is in the tank, and voters have been clear they think he’s too old. If Trump wins, history will not remember Biden kindly.”
Meanwhile, Trump spends valuable campaign time in a series of court appearances for his myriad of federal prosecution court dates.
“I’m under a gag order,” Trump told reporters after a court appearance Tuesday. “Nobody has actually seen anything like it … I’m beating him in every poll and I have a gag order, so I think it’s totally unconstitutional.”
Republicans have blasted Biden for Trump’s prosecution, accusing Biden of using the Justice Department against his political opponent.
“Despite Far Left Democrats’ illegal election interference, President Trump is beating Joe Biden in the polls!” Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., wrote on X Tuesday. “Voters see right through the sham Biden Trials and know President Trump is the best choice for president.”
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Casey Harper is a D.C. Bureau Reporter for The Center Square.
Photo “Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0. Photo “Joe Biden” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0. Background Photo “The White House” by René DeAnda
