The chief pollster and founder of The Trafalgar Group says one consequence of Joe Biden’s recent venomous attacks on Trump supporters is it is now “virtually impossible” to poll and estimate as the midterms approach since 2022 Republicans have now become “submerged voters.”
Inciting extreme divisiveness close to a general election apparently has its cost when it comes to reliable polling, noted Robert Cahaly last week in a social media thread as he spelled out one of the effects of Biden’s Labor Day speech in Wisconsin on polling efforts.
Robert Cahaly, chief pollster and strategist with The Trafalgar Group, joined Liz Collin to weigh in on the recent Minnesota general election poll his firm conducted for Alpha News.
Roughly 100 million early votes already were cast before the first polls opened Tuesday morning, Michael McDonald, professor at the University of Florida, says. He runs the Election Project, which tracks polling and election data by state.
“These reports will include early voting activity from the proceeding day,” McDonald said in the latest analysis published Nov. 1. “It is also likely reports by Tuesday morning will fail to capture all of the pre-election voting activity since there are sporadic reports of election officials experiencing delays in processing the unprecedented number of mail ballots.”