Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz called a press conference Friday afternoon to discuss the modeling the state is using in its coronavirus response, but faced harsh criticism for initially closing the briefing to the public.
The model in question, developed by researchers at the University of Minnesota, predicts that the state will have 22,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic, according a slideshow from the press briefing posted online. That prediction takes into account the governor’s stay-at-home order, which was extended until May 4.
However, the popular model developed by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts that Minnesota will have just 442 deaths over the next four months.
One of the main differences between the two forecasts is that the Minnesota model tracks the full course of the pandemic while the IHME model looks only at the next four months.
According to MPR data journalist David Montgomery, the Minnesota Department of Health won’t release the “model interface and code” until “late April.”
“Why would it take any time whatsoever to release code?” some asked.
Why would it take any time whatsoever to release code? https://t.co/Li8pS9EBHp
— Jeff Kolb (@jpkolb) April 10, 2020
Matt Dean, a former Republican state representative, wondered why Minnesota was preparing for a mid-July peak when “everyone else in the country is planning for this Monday.”
“This model is created with back of the napkin math. If it wasn’t, they wouldn’t have closed the transparency briefing down to press only,” he wrote on Twitter. “They are promising to release the math in a few weeks. B (as in B) S (as in S).”
https://twitter.com/repmattdean/status/1248667426079809538
State Sen. Karin Housley (R-St. Mary’s Point) said she was worried about the governor “holding a press conference for media only and not live-streaming his secret modeling numbers.”
These numbers don’t make any sense! 22,000 is way off! What worries me even more is that @GovTimWalz is holding a press conference for media only and not live-streaming his secret modeling numbers. https://t.co/ct6VCTkf0y
— Karin Housley (@KarinHousley) April 10, 2020
She also claimed that Senate Republicans were excluded from listening in on the governor’s noon press briefing, but it was later clarified that only the four legislative caucus leaders were invited to participate in the call.
“Again, why is Gov. Walz being so secretive? A secret press conference to reveal his secret modeling numbers (that make no sense) and then not answering questions. The public demands transparency and answers,” she wrote on Twitter.
Again, why is @GovTimWalz being so secretive? A secret press conference to reveal his secret modeling numbers (that make no sense) and then not answering questions. The public demands transparency and answers. https://t.co/8Z7PWpXksA
— Karin Housley (@KarinHousley) April 10, 2020
John Rouleau, executive director of the Minnesota Jobs Coalition, called it a “colossal misstep” to close the briefing to “press only as people get antsy.”
“After streaming daily briefings regularly for the past month, I hope they have a good answer as to why this was closed and not streamed,” he said.
A colossal misstep from the Walz admin making this briefing press only as people get antsy. After streaming daily briefings regularly for the past month, I hope they have a good answer to why this was closed and not streamed. https://t.co/x8MqGHLnbI
— John Rouleau (@John_Rouleau) April 10, 2020
Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson, who has gained attention for his skepticism of coronavirus modeling, pointed out that the Minnesota model projects “almost no difference in deaths” among four of the scenarios investigated.
“So (even if the 22,000 figure is right, and it clearly isn’t) what, exactly, is the point?” he added.
2/ – Even though Scenario 3 offers only "social distancing" for "the most vulnerable" after May 1 and the other scenarios have far harsher rules, up to "long term slowed contacts for all."
So (even if the 22,000 figure is right, and it clearly isn't) what, exactly, is the point?
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 10, 2020
The Department of Health eventually posted a recording of the briefing on YouTube, but the negative reactions continued to roll in throughout the afternoon.
I read daily tweets from journalists soliciting subscriptions to support their working during this critical time. It is inconsistent to ask the public for support and then not support the public. The media should have live-streamed today's #COVIDー19 briefing. #CoronavirusMN
— Michael Brodkorb (@mbrodkorb) April 10, 2020
MN @GovTimWalz:
3/13 – Declares State of Emergency
3/25 – Exec Stay-At-Home Order – April 10
4/8 – Extends Exec Stay-At-Home Order – May 4NO Churches open to worship on Easter
NO Large family gatherings
NO "non-essential businesses open4/10 – Gov Walz takes the day off.
— Chris Berg (@chrisbergpov) April 10, 2020
Want to know who is running the show in Minnesota right now? 4 professors and 3 students at the U of M. That's it. Who won't show their work.
Minnesota COVID-19 modelers from U will release numbers and technical info Friday https://t.co/U6w1xy4Fa2 via @pioneerpress
— David Strom (@DavidStrom) April 10, 2020
– – –
Anthony Gockowski is managing editor of The Minnesota Sun and The Ohio Star. Follow Anthony on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Tim Walz” by Tim Walz.
It’s time for MN to get back to work. It’s BEEN time. Enough is enough.
We see that the cdc is merging deaths together to inflate this into a pandemic. We see the planned questions by the liberal media. Hopefully you see the wrath coming your way on May 4th. This fraud of a show on tv will be your worse nightmare. While you are destroying families over this fraud. See you soon.
The secrecy is puzzling but it is also the way politicians usually act when they have absolutely no idea what to do next. So they are predicting that there will be 22,000 Minnesotans who will die this year from exposure to the Coronavirus.
The population estimate for Minnesota in 2019 was 5,841,400 people. If the people doing the estimating are correct, even they don’t know if they are, 22,000 deaths is a relatively small number. 22,000 divided by 5,841,400 = .00377 percent of the states population. With respect, I have reason to believe that the actual number of deaths caused by the Coronavirus is substantially fewer. This is based on statements made by several people, including doctors, at the federal level that are saying even if the patient is only symptomatic when death occurs they should list the cause of death as COVID19.