A new poll examining voter preferences in four former “blue wall” states, including Minnesota, found that a majority of swing voters view Medicare-for-all and open borders as “bad ideas.”
The poll, conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation in collaboration with the Cook Political Report, surveyed voters in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania for a new “Blue Wall Voices Project.”
Of the four states, Minnesota was the only one in which Republican voters are as motivated as their Democratic counterparts. Democratic voters in the remaining three states are more motivated to vote in the 2020 election than their Republican peers by an average of 10 percentage points, according to a summary of key findings.
One-fourth of voters in each state say they “definitely” plan to vote for President Donald Trump, while another one in 10 say they will “probably” vote for him. But more voters overall (40 percent) say they will definitely or probably vote for the Democratic nominee than say they will definitely or probably vote for President Trump (33 percent).
The poll also found that while huge numbers of Democratic voters support progressive policies, some of these proposals may turn off swing voters. In fact, the results show 71 percent of swing voters across the four states view not detaining border crossers as a “bad idea,” while another 62 percent said the same of Medicare-for-all, and another 54 percent disapproved of a fracking ban.
Overall, the poll shows Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden as the front-runners among likely Democratic primary voters in all four states. Warren leads the Democratic field in each state except for Pennsylvania, where Biden leads with 27 percent of the vote.
The breakdown of Democratic primary voter preferences is as follows:
- Michigan: Warren (25%), Biden (19%) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (15%)
- Minnesota: Warren (25%), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (15%), Biden (14%) and Sanders (13%)
- Pennsylvania: Biden (27%), Warren (18%) and Sanders (14%)
- Wisconsin: Warren (22%), Biden (17%), and Sanders (10%)
The poll also confirms the obvious—President Trump is the defining factor for many Republican and Democratic voters. According to a summary of key findings, defeating President Trump “was offered as the top motivation to vote in 2020 by 39 percent of Democratic voters while responses related to re-electing President Trump/not wanting a Democrat were offered by 21 percent of Republican voters.”
“A year ahead of the 2020 presidential election, President Trump is the biggest defining factor for voters in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – more often in a negative than a positive direction,” a press release from the Kaiser Family Foundation adds.
A state-specific report on Minnesota notes 57 percent of Democrats are more motivated to vote in 2020 while 59 percent of Republicans feel the same way. Nearly one-in-five (18 percent) Minnesota voters cited defeating President Trump as their top motivation to vote, compared to nine percent who are primarily motivated by reelecting President Trump. The good news for President Trump is that 41 percent of Minnesota voters were identified as swing voters and remain uncertain about who they will support in the general election.
The full results of the poll can be accessed here.
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Anthony Gockowski is managing editor of Battleground State News, The Ohio Star, and The Minnesota Sun. Follow Anthony on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “No Open Borders Sign” by Jonathan McIntosh.
