As predicted, the race for Minnesota’s Second Congressional District is a “toss-up,” with a new poll showing that Rep. Jason Lewis (R-MN-02) and Democrat Angie Craig are essentially tied.
According to a new KSTP and SurveyUSA poll, Craig leads Lewis by three percentage points in her second bid for the district, which she failed to win in the 2016 election.
This time around, Craig is using an unpopular Trump administration to her advantage, while Lewis is struggling to “separate himself” from the president.
“The question is going to be can Lewis separate himself from a very unpopular Donald Trump. If he can, he’ll have a stronger shot at holding this seat,” Larry Jacobs of the University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute told KSTP.
The poll found that 41 percent of likely voters in Minnesota’s Second Congressional District approve of Trump’s job performance, compared to 54 percent who disapprove. Lewis is polling slightly stronger job-performance numbers, with 42 percent of his constituents approving of his first term in Congress.
Overall, 45 percent of voters plan to back Lewis in his bid for reelection, while 48 percent plan to support Craig, and 7 percent of voters are still undecided.
If Craig is to flip the seat, voters focused on health care and education will need to turn out in large numbers, while Lewis needs voters concerned with taxes and jobs to head to the polls in order to keep his seat.
According to the poll, Lewis is performing well among suburban men and younger voters, while Craig is putting up strong numbers in the suburban women and senior demographics.
“This is going to be a real challenge for Jason Lewis. He’s got to cut down on some of that advantage that Angie Craig has among women or to expand his support among men,” Jacobs said, pointing out that Lewis has a six-point advantage among male voters, though Craig has a 12-point lead among female voters.
“The second congressional district with Angie Craig and Jason Lewis is a toss-up,” Jacobs added. “We knew this race was going to be close.”
– – –
Anthony Gockowski is managing editor of The Minnesota Sun. Follow Anthony on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
