It is hard for highly ideological people, including me, to understand undecided voters. But some of it seems to come down to the “cool” factor. Cool candidates win and uncool candidates do not.
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Will Hispanics and young voters help propel former President Donald Trump to a second term in the White House? New polling suggests so, strongly.
But first some background on the larger macro shifts in the electorate and party identification: Bigger picture, the populist-nationalist revolt continues to reshape politics in America in ways that are systemic and, likely, generational. This political tectonic shift is transforming the Republican Party into a party of workers, claiming whole demographic groups that were formerly considered the political provenance of the Democrats.
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The latest Harvard Youth Poll reveals President Joe Biden has lost significant ground with voters under thirty compared to four years ago, with a 20-point decline among young men. While young Americans give Biden low marks on foreign policy and economic issues including inflation, housing, and the job market, immigration is a leading factor in young people’s departure from Democrats.
Biden currently leads Trump by thirteen percentage points (50 percent to 37 percent) among registered voters under thirty in the Harvard Youth Poll, a slightly higher margin than he has led by in other recent polls that include young people as a subset.
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Former President Donald Trump has lowered President Joe Biden’s lead in support from people under 30 compared to four years ago, according to a poll released Thursday.
During the 2020 presidential election, Biden led Trump by 23% among support from young people under 30, and held a 30-point advantage among likely young voters. In the latest survey from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, however, Trump came in just eight points behind Biden among young adults between the ages of 18 and 29, with Biden leading 45% to Trump’s 37%.
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President Biden’s sliding poll numbers have set off alarm signals among Democrats who are beginning to see that he might lose the 2024 election to Donald Trump. Those polls have also gotten the attention of pundits who have confidently said for three years now that Trump could never again win a national election. The polling results published over the past few months suggest otherwise: Trump is currently the favorite to win next year’s election.
The most recent RealClearPolitics Average has Trump leading Biden by 2.6 percentage points, a switch of about four points since late summer when Biden led 45%-43%, and in a long-running decline of seven points for Biden since he won the 2020 election with 51% percent of the popular vote.
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A majority of young voters are not planning on voting in the 2024 presidential election, according to a new Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School poll published Tuesday.
The number of Americans under 30 “definitely” planning to vote dropped from 57% in 2020 to 49%, according to the poll. Democrats, who typically receive the most support from young voters, suffered the smallest drop from 68% to 66%, but young Republicans dropped 10 percentage points from 66% to 56%, with independents having similar results, going from 41% to 31%.
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Young voters were one of the core coalitions that installed President Biden in the White House, supporting him by a twenty-four-point margin in 2020. Peering deeper into the data, young voters have been slowly drifting away from Democrats in each election since 2012. That drift has rapidly accelerated in the past three years as economic issues have become paramount for young adults. New polling suggests Biden is on track to lose double-digits with voters under thirty compared to the 2020 election, and economic issues are at the center of the problem.
Stagnant wages, crippling inflation, a housing affordability crisis, the importation of cheap foreign labor, and an absurd regulatory environment that stifles small business growth are issues all Americans face, but young people are hit particularly hard in Biden’s economy.
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Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground with young voters ahead of 2024, and is faring better than President Joe Biden among the electorate, according to a Friday poll.
Trump is leading Biden among voters aged 18 to 29 by 2 points, as well as with 30- to 39-year-olds by 11 points, according to an Emerson College survey. Trump is also leading Biden in a head-to-head matchup 47% to 45% nationally, with 8% remaining undecided.
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A report published in the Washington Times last week, entitled “Young conservatives take climate activism to GOP presidential debate,” undoubtedly is of grave concern to conservatives and the Republican Party. A group of young Republicans called the American Conservation Coalition is warning GOP presidential candidates that they “need to engage on energy and climate or they’re going to lose young voters.”
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A favorite argument the left propagates is that demographics are destiny, and that a tidal wave of young left-wing voters will erode GOP margins beyond repair. The argument that demographics are destiny is of course inescapable, but the argument that these demographics favor the left exclusively is misleading.
What the data shows is there have been small but discernible shifts away from the Democrat Party over the past few years. The bulk of the research on younger voters also shows a widening gender gap. Younger women are becoming increasingly liberal and younger men are not. Recent research shows that younger men hold more conservative views than older men on gender issues, including the transgender question.
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Now that the 2022 midterm elections are in the book, the post-election blame game for Republicans is underway. And there are plenty of explanations being suggested.
First is the group who say they never expected a “red wave.” Clearly their prognostication button had been on mute until now. Another group is blaming Republican opposition to early and mail-in voting. This may have had some effect, but a moderate one in comparison to 2020. For this, Republicans have no one to blame but themselves.
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Republicans made gains in the midterm elections among voters under 30, a demographic that tends to lean heavily Democratic, according to the Associated Press.
Young voters swung 53 percent for Democratic House candidates and 41 percent for Republican candidates, according to the AP. The result marks a decline from recent elections: voters under 30 chose President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump 61 percent to 36 percent in 2020, swung for Democrats 64 to 34 percent in 2018 House races.
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The Republican Party struggled with young voters ages 18-29 in the 2022 midterm election, largely due to issues such as abortion, gun rights, and climate change, according to an analysis from Look Ahead Strategies.
CNN found that House Democratic candidates “won voters under 30 by 28 points,” which was a two-point increase over the 2020 election data for that age group.
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A new poll reveals that over half of Democratic voters, and an even larger majority of younger voters, believe that the Supreme Court must be abolished after a series of rulings that greatly increased personal freedoms.
As reported by the New York Post, the poll from the Heartland Institute saw 53 percent of Democrats voice their support for eliminating the Supreme Court altogether, in favor of replacing it with a “new, democratically elected…court with justices chosen by the American people directly.” Of these respondents, 33 percent said they were “strongly” in favor of such an idea. In the same poll, a slightly larger majority of voters between the ages of 19 and 39 want to abolish the high court, at 54 percent. By contrast, only 21 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of independents supported abolition.
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As the Democratic Party faces multiple political crises ahead of the November midterms, some are especially concerned that the party is losing its support among the youngest generation, Generation Z, over its response to the Supreme Court’s historic decision on abortion.
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